'If weak indicators persist, there is a risk that India could slip into a prolonged slowdown similar to the one experienced between 2014 and 2019,' warns Debashis Basu.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty pared early gains to settle lower on Wednesday due to late selling in index major Reliance Industries, ITC and HDFC Bank even as the RBI took the first step towards a rate cut in its monetary policy review. Erasing its early gains, the 30-share BSE Sensex fell 167.71 points or 0.21 per cent to close at 81,467.1. During the day, it surged 684.4 points or 0.83 per cent to hit an intra-day high of 82,319.21.
'Retail investors, who had not seen such a massive correction in the SMID universe since COVID-19, are witnessing something like this for the first time. Panic profit booking may continue.'
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) interest rate decision, West Asia conflict and trading activity of foreign investors are the key factors that will dictate investors' sentiment in the market this week, analysts said. Moreover, quarterly earnings from IT bellwether TCS, domestic macroeconomic data and movement in global oil benchmark Brent crude would also guide trends in the market. Worsening tensions in the Middle East and foreign fund outflows were the major culprits behind the equity markets sharp fall last week.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty settled higher on Thursday, powered by a rally in banking and power stocks amid a largely firm trend in global markets. The stock markets mostly traded range-bound in the absence of any major trigger and persistent foreign capital outflows, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 144.31 points, or 0.18 per cent, to settle at 81,611.41.
From the Sensex pack, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zones, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major gainers. In contrast, Tata Steel, Titan, Bajaj Finserv, JSW Steel, Bajaj Finance, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Tata Motors and Tata Consultancy Services were among the laggards.
India's latest bid round for 21 oil and gas blocks attracted just three bidders, two of whom were state-owned explorers Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) and Oil India Ltd (OIL), according to upstream regulator DGH. As many as 21 blocks or areas were offered for exploration and production of oil and gas in the Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP) Bid Round-VI, for which bidding closed on October 6. Besides ONGC and OIL, Sun Petrochemicals was the only other company to have bid, according to 'Summary of Bids Received Against Offered Blocks' posted by the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH).
Equity investors will track the trading activity of foreign investors, global trends and ongoing earnings results for further cues, and benchmark indices may continue to witness consolidation in a holiday-shortened week amid the monthly derivatives expiry, analysts said. Markets fell sharply last week amid massive foreign capital outflows and dismal Q2 earnings so far. Weakness in the markets might continue in the near term amid cautiousness among investors ahead of the US presidential election early next month, an expert said.
The President said he made the decision in consultation with European allies but added they may not be in a position to join the US in banning Russian energy imports.
Vedanta chairman Anil Agarwal on Saturday pressed for further liberalisation of the defence sector and called for corporatisation of defence factories to make the country self reliant in respect of arms and ammunition. There are 52 defence factories for manufacturing arms and ammunition in the country but most of them are running at 10 per cent capacity, he said. "We (India) can be the largest producer of arms and ammunition. "If the defence factories are corporatised it will bring in a new way of thinking," Agarwal said while addressing the inauguration of a post graduate programme for executives virtually from London.
After subdued earnings in the first half amid global headwinds, India Inc is taking a cautious approach on their capital expenditure (capex) for the second half of the financial year ending March 2025, according to management commentary. Minutes from the October monetary policy meeting show the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) optimism about private investments picking up.
Among the Sensex constituents, 18 stocks closed in negative with UltraTech Cement, L&T, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance and Tech Mahindra being major laggards. Other heavyweights like Asian Paints, Maruti, Titan and JSW Steel also saw heavy selling. In contrast, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bajaj Finserve, HDFC Bank, ITC and SBI bucked the trend and ended the session with a gain of up to 2.09 per cent.
Kerala pumpkin curry has to be the best way to eat kadu. And ever tried an imli-ginger relish?
India's macroeconomic situation has benefited from oil prices' decline.
'Investors looking at the next 6-12 months can be certain that the Fed will maintain its easing cycle, and we expect the overall environment to be conducive for fixed income investments for portfolio diversification.'
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for the tenth time in a row but changed its stance to 'neutral' that may lead to a cut in the forthcoming policies. RBI maintained status quo despite the US Federal Reserve lowering the benchmark rates by 50 basis points last month.
Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan on Tuesday put state-owned ONGC and OIL on notice saying oil and gas reserves they hold need to be monetised through joint ventures with domain experts or the government will take them away and auction them. Speaking at BNEF Summit, he said state-owned firms cannot indefinitely sit on resources when the nation is a net importer of oil and gas. Despite India bidding out acreages to private and other companies since the 1990s, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India Ltd (OIL) hold a "sizeable number of acreage for years," he said.
Upstream majors ONGC and Oil India (OIL) results for the January-March quarter (Q4) of FY24 suggest better production in future. But OIL missed its own production targets although it delivered higher volumes and it disappointed the market in terms of Ebitda. ONGC reported standalone Ebitda of Rs 17,400 crore (up 7 per cent year-on-year or Y-o-Y) in Q4FY24, slightly below estimates due to other higher expenses.
India is the world's fourth-largest importer of natural gas, accounting for six per cent of the global market.
Global oil majors may be teaming up with investment funds that are already in the race to acquire Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), a document detailing steps needed to complete India's biggest privatisation showed. Billionaire Anil Agarwal's Vedanta group as well as two US funds -- Apollo Global and I Squared Capital - had last year submitted initial bids to buyout the government's entire 52.98 per cent stake in India's third-biggest oil refiner and second-largest fuel retailer. Detailing the 'Next Step', the 'Brief Note on BPCL Disinvestment' said Transaction Advisor and Asset Valuer are to submit an inception report, bidders have to complete due diligence of the company and sale purchase agreement has to be finalised.
Wholesale inflation in the country rose for the fourth consecutive month in June at 3.36 per cent on account of rise in prices of food articles, especially vegetables and manufactured items. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation was 2.61 per cent in May. It was (-) 4.18 per cent in June 2023.
A soupy, spicy, tasty soul-warmer to light up monsoon days.
Dr Nagesh Kumar, one of the three new MPC members, wanted the MPC to reduce the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday retained the retail inflation projection at 4.5 per cent for fiscal 2024-25, with Governor Shaktikanta Das stressing that the central bank will have to closely monitor the price situation and keep the "inflation horse" under tight leash lest it may bolt again. Unveiling the October bi-monthly monetary policy, the Governor also said the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework has completed 8 years since its introduction in 2016 and is a major structural reform of the 21st century in India.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday said people are finding current interest rates "very stressful" and urged banks to make them affordable. Speaking at an event organised by State Bank of India, the finance minister said that at present, India requires industry to ramp up and invest in new facilities, and added that lowering lending rates can help achieve the "Viksit Bharat" aspiration.
Retail inflation softened to 6.71 per cent in July due to moderation in food prices but remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent for the seventh consecutive month. With retail inflation continuing to remain high despite a fall in prices of vegetables and edible oils, among other commodities in July, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might go for another rate hike in September. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was at 7.01 per cent in June and 5.59 per cent in July 2021. It was above 7 per cent from April to June this fiscal.
Retail inflation declined to a five-year low of 3.54 per cent in July mainly on account of subdued prices of food items, and base effect, according to official data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 5.08 per cent in June 2024 and 7.44 per cent in July 2023.
In the Sensex pack, Mahindra & Mahindra tanked over 6 per cent after the company cut the prices of its SUV models to boost demand. Mahindra & Mahindra said its XUV700's fully-loaded AX7 range now starts at Rs 19.49 lakh, a price cut of over Rs 2 lakh. Tata Steel, Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Technologies, State Bank of India, JSW Steel, Tata Motors and Kotak Mahindra Bank were other losers.
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is the biggest event that would drive sentiments in the domestic stock market this week, besides a host of macroeconomic data from the global front and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. The Indian equity market had an exceptional last week, with both the Nifty and Sensex hitting their all-time high levels on Thursday.
India's ONGC has lost the giant Kashagan oilfield to the Chinese after Kazakhstan blocked its $5 billion deal to buy US energy major ConocoPhillips' stake in the Caspian Sea oilfield.
If growth reverts to the pre-Covid level, a lot of people may have to temper their rosy optimism, points out Debashis Basu.
Retail inflation in August inched up to 3.65 per cent, though vegetables and pulses witnessed price rise in double digits, according to official data released on Thursday. The retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), however, remained below the Reserve Bank's median target of 4 per cent for the second month in a row. It was at a five-year low of 3.6 per cent in July.
Investor wealth eroded by Rs 4.46 lakh crore in a single day on Friday with the benchmark BSE Sensex tanking more than 1 per cent in line with global stocks rout. The 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 885.60 points or 1.08 per cent to close at 80,981.95 with 25 of its components declining and five ending with gains. During the day, it nosedived 998.64 points or 1.21 per cent to hit an intra-day low of 80,868.91.
The rupee has depreciated by 0.6 per cent so far in the current financial year.
Global financial markets are wrong in hoping that the worst is over in geopolitical crises such as the Iran-Israel conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war, wrote Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, in a recent note to investors called 'GREED & fear'. While most investors and the media are focused on United States (US) Federal Reserve policy and the "endless chatter" of Fed governors, Wood believes the news flow in the financial sphere "pales into complete insignificance" compared with the "tectonic shifts" going on in geopolitics.
The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends will drive investors' sentiment this week, with markets hoping to continue the positive momentum after ending FY24 on a buoyant note, analysts said. In addition, the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also influence trading in equity markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent in the 2023-24.
Wholesale price-based inflation rose to a record high of 15.88 per cent in May on rising prices of food items and crude oil. The Wholesale Price Index-based inflation was 15.08 per cent in April and 13.11 per cent in May last year. "The high rate of inflation in May, 2022 is primarily due to rise in prices of mineral oils, crude petroleum & natural gas, food articles, basic metals, non-food articles, chemicals & chemical products and food products etc. as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year," the commerce and industry ministry said in a statement.
Wholesale inflation fell to a 4-month low of 1.31 per cent in August due to a decline in prices of vegetables and fuel, even though onion and potato prices spiked, according to official data released on Tuesday. Wholesale price index-based inflation fell for the second straight month in August after it hit a high of 3.43 per cent in May. Inflation in July was 2.04 per cent. In August last year, WPI inflation was (-) 0.46 per cent.
The wholesale inflation rose for the third consecutive month in May at 2.61 per cent on account of rise in prices of food articles, especially vegetables, and manufactured items. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation was 1.26 per cent in the previous month. It was (-) 3.61 per cent in May 2023. "Positive rate of inflation in May, 2024 is primarily due to increase in prices of food articles, manufacture of food products, crude petroleum & natural gas, mineral oils, other manufacturing etc," the ministry of commerce & industry said in a statement on Friday.
